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PEACE & SECURITY REPORT
IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to keep busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community briefed on pertinent global news, events, and trends.  Meticulously researched and written by IPSI, the PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events.
Featured Article
Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War 
Armenia and AzerbaijanAn arms race, escalating front-line clashes, vitriolic war rhetoric and a virtual breakdown in peace talks are increasing the chance Armenia and Azerbaijan will go back to war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Preventing this is urgent. Increased military capabilities on both sides would make a new armed conflict in the South Caucasus far more deadly than the 1992-1994 one that ended with a shaky truce. Neither side would be likely to win easily or quickly. Regional alliances could pull in Russia, Turkey and Iran. Vital oil and gas pipelines near the front lines would be threatened, as would the cooperation between Russia and Turkey that is central to regional stability. Another refugee crisis would be likely. To start reversing this dangerous downward trend, the opposing sides should sign a document on basic principles for resolving the conflict peacefully and undertake confidence-building steps to reduce tensions and avert a resumption of fighting. READ FULL ARTICLE >>  
Africa

IVORY COAST: South African ship complicates political crisis
On February 8, the president of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) criticized South Africa for deploying a naval vessel to Ivory Coast as a "negotiating venue" for the ongoing political crisis.  South Africa did not consult with ECOWAS before dispatching the vessel, which ECOWAS feels complicates efforts to resolve the political impasse peacefully.  Comment: The rift between West African states over South Africa's actions demonstrates the difficulties which can develop when a diverse group of nations work as a united governing body.  A recent International Crisis Group report explains the ECOWAS nations have fractured into three groups: pro-Gbagbo, anti-Gbagbo, and neutral.  The post-election crisis began after incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo refused to cede power to Alassane Ouattara, the internationally recognized winner of the presidential election.  (Reuters, Vanguard, AP)

 

SOMALIA: Pirates hijack Italian and U.S.-bound ships
On Wednesday, suspected Somali pirates in the Indian Ocean seized a U.S.-bound ship transporting $200 million worth of oil, accounting for 20 percent of total daily U.S. oil imports.  The hijacking occurred one day after pirates used guns and rocket-propelled grenades to capture an Italian tanker carrying $60 million worth of oil.  Currently, there is no communication with either vessel, each of which has more than 20 crew members on board.  Joe Angelo, managing director of Intertanko, argues that the hijacking of these large tankers is "a significant shift in the impact of the piracy crisis in the Indian Ocean...and if it is left unabated, it will strangle these crucial shipping lanes with the potential to severely disrupt oil flows to the U.S. and to the rest of the world."  Comment: The current crisis is reinforcing industry fears that piracy is expanding uncontrollably. Although there have been efforts to reduce the attacks, navies continue to struggle to combat piracy in the vast Indian Ocean; however, if piracy continues to significantly disrupt oil flows, governments may intensify anti-piracy efforts.  (Reuters, Aljazeera, AFP) 

 

SUDAN: South Sudan minister shot dead
On February 9 at approximately 1045hrs local time, South Sudan Minister of Cooperatives and Rural Development Jimmy Lemi Milla's personal driver broke into the Minister's office 200 meters from the president's office and killed him and his bodyguard.  The gunman, also Milla's brother in-law, was arrested, and his motives appear to be personal rather than political.  The assassination occurred two days after official figures revealed that 98.83 percent of Southern Sudanese voters chose to secede from Sudan.  After the results, President Obama and President al-Bashir declared their intentions to recognize and cooperate with Southern Sudan; the U.S. has begun the process of removing Sudan from its terrorism sponsor list.  Comment: Despite the apolitical nature of the attack, such actions could call into question the stability and security of a newly independent southern Sudan among the international community(Sudan Tribune, Aljazeera, Reuters)  


Researched/Written
by Haja Kakay

Americas
COLOMBIA: FARC set to release five hostages
Wednesday February 9, a delegation, led by former Senator Piedad Cordoba, received the first of five hostages FARC committed to release last December; the five hostages include two politicians, two soldiers and a police officer.  An additional two hostages are scheduled to be released Friday followed by the final two on Sunday.  Comment:  This is the first hostage release since President Santos took office in August.  Santos expressed pleasure with the release, but has indicated that it is not enough, going as far as demanding the release of all FARC hostages in a speech marking his first six months in office.  It is believed that FARC hopes to spur a new round of peace talks with the government by releasing the hostages. In the past, FARC tried to trade hostages for imprisoned guerillas.  (AFP, El Tiempo, El Nuevo Herald
  
HAITI: Pr�val's presidency is extended through May
The Haitian government announced on February 7 that President Pr�val would remain in office an additional three months.  An emergency law passed by the Senate allows for this extension due to a delay Pr�val faced before inauguration in 2006.  Pr�val's term was due to end Monday, but the extension will keep him in power until after the March 20 presidential runoff.  The President was quiet about his intentions, leading to speculation that he would appoint an interim President.  This extension is backed by many in the international community, including the U.S., in the hopes of avoiding a potential power vacuum.  Comment: Haiti's presidential election has been marred by conflict since the beginning.  This announcement comes shortly after a decision was reached regarding the outcome of the November ballot.  This election is of particular importance as the new President will be instrumental in helping Haiti rebuild. (Voice of America, Alter Presse)
  
PERU: Dengue fever kills 14
Health officials declared a "red alert" February 4 because of the spread of dengue fever within the country.  This highly aggressive strain has already killed 14 and infected thousands.  Officials believe it spread to the Loreto region from Brazil.  Unlike hemorrhagic dengue, this strain doesn't result in high fevers, but does cause abdominal pains and can lead to shock.  The outbreak has afflicted people in countries throughout the region including Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay. While the disease is common to the region, infections and resulting deaths have increased in recent years.  Comment:  The government is acting swiftly to diagnose and treat people in the Loreto region.  Steps have been taken to exterminate mosquitos in order to cut down on the spread of the disease. (AFP, El Comercio, La Republica)  

  

Researched/Written by Michael Prather

East Asia
JAPAN: Officials furious over Russian Kuril Islands plans
Top Japanese and Russian officials exchanged increasingly sharp rhetoric this week over the disputed, Russian-controlled Kurile Islands, known in Japan as the Northern Territories. Japanese Prime Minister, Naoto Kan, strongly condemned Russian President Medvedev's visit last year to the disputed territory, calling the trip an "unforgiveable outrage." In response Wednesday, Medvedev referred to the islands as an "integral part of Russia" and vowed to send additional weaponry to the area in order to protect Russian sovereignty. On the eve of his official visit to Moscow Thursday, Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara reasserted that Japan's claim to sovereignty over the island chain is protected under international law. Comment: The Kurile Islands dispute is expected to top the agenda when Foreign Minister Maehara visits Moscow this weekend. The conflict dates back to the end of WWII when the Soviets took control of the Islands after Japan surrendered. Japan has two other persistent WWII-era territorial issues with its neighbors South Korea and China, which further strains Japan's already beleaguered relations with these countries. (Daily Yomiuri, Xinhua, AFP, BBC)
  
KOREA: Joint-military talks collapse
Preliminary talks between South and North Korean military officials ended abruptly Wednesday after the North Korean side refused to apologize for the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in March and October of last year. After the two sides abandoned the negotiations, the North Korean delegation claimed that South Korea was not serious about talks because they were not serious about improving relations. The South Korean government said that no new talks have been scheduled and even low-level cooperation cannot restart until last year's attacks are accounted for. Comment: The North Korean attacks on a South Korean naval vessel and Yeonpyeong Island were widely condemned by the international community. China was the only major power that refrained from outright criticism of the attacks, consequently straining its relations with South Korea. (Chosunilbo, VOA, AFP, BBC)
  
TAIWAN: Military General Arrested for spying for China
A high-ranking General, Lo Hsieh-che, was arrested Tuesday on charges that he provided China with classified military information, becoming the highest-ranked military official to be arrested on espionage charges in nearly five decades.  The General is the head of the army command's communications and information office and is alleged to have been lured by sex and money upon meeting a female Chinese agent while stationed in Thailand between 2002 and 2005. Lo reportedly first provided information in 2004 and received payments of between $100,000 and $200,000 for each transfer of information. Comment: The communications, which were likely provided to Chinese intelligence services, included information on various military communication networks set up with assistance from the United States. News of the arrest could result in a serious setback for bi-lateral ties despite warming cross-strait relations in recent years. (Taipei Times, Financial Times, The Washington Post)
  
THAILAND/CAMBODIA: Security set to convene on border clash
The foreign ministers of Thailand and Cambodia will head to the UN Security Council on Monday to discuss border clashes last Friday and Monday over a disputed 1.8 square mile piece of land surrounding a nearly 1000 year-old Hindu temple. At least ten people were killed and thousands fled their villages as the cross-border shelling escalated.  Despite Thailand's preference that the issue be discussed without a third party, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen insisted that the Security Council take up the matter. Comment: The Thai-Cambodian border issue began with Cambodian independence, but in 1962, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) awarded the disputed temple to Cambodia. The status of the land surrounding the temple has never been resolved; however, in 2008, Cambodia further angered Thailand by gaining UNESCO World Heritage recognition for the Temple, called Preah Vihear. (The Phnom Penh Post, The Nation, AFP, VOA)

 

Researched/Written by Paul Rothman

Europe & Central Asia
ENGLAND: Julian Assange fighting extradition trial
On February 7 and 8, Julian Assange fought extradition to Sweden in an English courtroom.  Assange, who is wanted in Sweden for questioning over alleged sex crimes, claims that if he were to be extradited, he would not receive a fair trial due to the intensity of media coverage on his controversial website, Wikileaks.  Assange's lawyers then asserted that if extradited to Sweden, he could be subsequently be extradited to the U.S., where he would potentially face the death penalty.  Comment:  Assange denied all wrongdoing in the sex crime accusations, although he has not formally been charged.  Swedish authorities issued a warrant for his arrest after he failed to appear at an interview about the allegations in December.  (BBC, AP, Aklagare)
  
ITALY: Prosecutors seek Berlusconi trial
On February 9, prosecutors requested to move forth with a trial for Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi on charges of having sex with a teenage prostitute and pressuring police to release her from custody last year.  The prime minister states he was misled by the girl and was told she was 24, when she was actually 17.  The judge who received the request has five days to decide if the trial is to proceed.  Berlusconi's lawyers claim the local court does not have jurisdiction and must hand the case over to a special court for ministers.  Comment:  Public opinion in Italy remains divided; half believe he must stand trial and the other half believe he is being victimized by "former communists and fascists."  Many of Berlusconi's opponents believe the trial will be unfair if the case is transferred to a special court, as the tribunal would consist of other Italian government ministers.  (Financial Times, The Guardian, CNN)
  
RUSSIA:  Chechen militants claim responsibility for Domodedovo bombing
On Monday, Chechen militant leader Doku Umarov posted a video on the internet where he claims responsibility for the Domodedovo airport attack last month.  In the video, Umarov expressed doubt that "freedom can be achieved without war" and lamented that he did not want to shed so much blood with the attack.  A separate video of Umarov surfaced on February 5 in which he threatens a year of "blood and tears" for Russia.  Comment: Although Umarov claims responsibility for the attack, Russian intelligence officers express doubt.  Instead, the FSB believes the attack was carried out by an independent terrorist group, comprised of no more than seven people. (BBC, Moscow Times, ITAR-TASS)

 

Researched/Written by Daniel Pechtol 

 
Middle East & North Africa
EGYPT: Protesters hold "farewell Friday"
A day after President Mubarak's speech, hundreds of thousands of pro-democracy protesters across Egypt took to the streets on February 11 in what is estimated as the largest demonstration in recent weeks. In a final attempt to force Mubarak to step down, protest organizers are calling for millions of people to come out on "Farewell Friday." Around midday, the military announced it would lift Egypt's 30 year-old emergency law, but only when "current circumstances" end. However, many protesters expected a stronger statement from the military despite a commitment to free and fair elections and constitutional changes. Currently, media outlets are reporting President Mubarak and his family left Cairo and are now in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Shiekh, where he has a residence. Comment: Halfway through President Mubarak's televised address to the nation, anticipation turned into anger among protesters in Tahrir Square as many waived their shoes in acts of defiance. His handing over "functions of the president" to Vice President Omar Suleiman means he will retain the title of the president and the transition of power remains ambiguous. (Al Jazeera, BBC, Reuters, Radio Free Europe)

JORDAN: 26 new cabinet members
Jordanian Prime Minister Bakhit appointed 26 new cabinet members on February 9 after holding dialogue sessions with different components of society, including civic and opposition groups, labor and business leaders, and youth and women representatives. The coalition is composed of leftist unionists, politicians, a former Muslim Brotherhood member, and two women, including a well-respected women's rights activist. Muslim Brotherhood members refused to take any cabinet posts, and claimed they would wait for reform results. King Abdullah, in a Letter of Designation, asserted that the government should take "practical, speedy, and tangible" reforms to realize development and modernization. Comment: The new government announced it will ease censorship, especially news media, and pave the way to political and economic reforms. Dialogue with all political forces is expected to continue in the near future in order to represent all segments of society. (Jordan Times, AFP, Reuters, BBC)
  
TUNISIA: Government calls for military reservists; fear of more unrest
On February 8, Tunisia's defense ministry called upon military reservists to report for duty in efforts to restore order. Retired members of the army, navy, and air force were asked to go to regional centers of conscription and mobilization. Security officials from the coalition government are accusing Ben Ali loyalists of fomenting unrest in attempts to derail the transition to democracy. Gunfights and looting resumed last week as pocket demonstrations spread throughout the country, calling for the resignation of local governors. The former governing party, the Constitutional Democratic Assembly, was banned as a political party on Sunday. The following day, parliament approved a law granting powers to Mebazza, the interim president. Comment: The military, with 45,000 troops, are vastly outnumbered by an estimated 100,000 police and security forces. The interior ministry, in a separate statement, urged the police to resume their role in fostering security. However, Tunisians have a low public respect for the police since many blame them for acts of violent repression during Ben Ali's presidency. (Al Jazeera, AFP, Magharebia)
  

Researched/Written by Carla Avendano

South Asia
AFGHANISTAN: Karzai calls for an end to NATO reconstruction teams
In Munich on February 6, President Karzai called for the dismantling of NATO's Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) and reaffirmed his call for allied governments to cease using private security companies. Karzai argued that the PRTs represent a parallel system of government, emphasizing that international presence is a threat to his authority and a hindrance to the growth of the Afghan government. Karzai called for the teams to leave, and in their place security would be handed over to Afghan forces; he is due to announce a program for the transfer of security responsibilities in March. Several Afghan political analysts spoke out against Karzai's requests, stating that Karzai's stance is not based on the will of the Afghan institutions or people, but rather by political motivations. Comment: NATO PRTs build roads and schools as well as other aid projects, bringing billions of dollars into areas outside Kabul. Because of corruption concerns, donor and coalition countries finance the reconstruction teams directly rather than through the Afghan government. (NY Times, BBC, Tolo News)
  
NEPAL: PM Khanal, Maoist integration, and the 'secret pact'
In his first interview since taking the oath on February 6, PM Khanal announced he will not compromise his plans to reintegrate the 19,000 former Maoist soldiers into the states' security agencies. Khanal, who won the election with the support of the Maoist party, resumed negotiations with Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal ('Prachanda') this week in order to reach an understanding on power sharing. However, both Prachanda and PM Khanal admitted to the existence of a 'secret pact', arranged prior to Khanal's election, allegedly allowing for the creation of a separate force of former Maoist rebels, rather than integration into existing forces. Since the pact and PM Khanal's most recent declarations appear to be in direct opposition, media sources are skeptical of the new Prime Minister's ability to complete the peace process. Comment: The new constitution is scheduled to be completed by May 28, but continuing disagreements between parties could mean a delayed deadline or the end of Khanal's term in office. In the current government, Maoists are thought to hold the foreign affairs, home and information, and communications ministries, however the Nepali congress remains in opposition. (Aljazeera, Neps Times, BBC, Times of India)
  
PAKISTAN: Fate of U.S. official strains U.S.-Pakistan relations
The case of U.S. diplomat Raymond Allen Davis, who fatally shot two Pakistanis whom he said threatened him from a motorcycle while he was driving in Lahore on January 27, is placing significant strain on the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. Davis was arrested after the incident but accused the two men of trying to highjack his vehicle at gunpoint. Last week the Lahore High Court extended Davis' remand for 15 days and ordered the government to place his name on the "exit control list" to prevent him from leaving the country. The U.S. Embassy in Islamabad, the U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan, and Secretary of State Clinton called for his release, citing his diplomatic status as protection from prosecution. Lahore police say that Davis is not privileged under diplomatic immunity and that he was not licensed to carry firearms. The American government already put high-level negotiations on hold with Pakistan and is threatening to withhold billions of dollars in aid if Davis is not released. Comment: A third Pakistani citizen was killed in the exchange on January 27 when a car rushing to the aid of Davis, struck the man and ran him over. On Sunday, the widow of Mohammad Faheem, one of the men shot by Davis, committed suicide by consuming rat poison. Shumaila, who was admitted to the hospital in critical condition, died after telling new reporters she "does not expect any justice from this government"; she believed the American would be set free without a trial. (Daily Mail News, RTT News, Reuters, Times of India) 

 

Researched/Written by Jennifer Clemens

February 11, 2011
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